Inflation Targeting and Nepalese Context

Abstract
Inflation targeting is a monetary policy regime. It involves the public announcement of medium-term numerical targets for inflation with an institutional commitment by the monetary authority to achieve these targets. Adoption of inflation targeting is not just a policy declaration. For that certain pre-requisites must be fulfilled. Focusing monetary policy on inflation does not imply that inflation targeting is indifferent to the performance of the real economy is simply incorrect. In Nepalese context, to switch monetary policy towards inflation targeting, central bank should have to fulfill pre-requisite first. Basically autonomy of central bank, public communication are the most important pre-requisite that Nepal must have to fulfill. Top of all the existing exchange rate system with Indian currency must be addressed so that economy can move towards inflation targeting.

Key words: Inflation Targeting, Monetary Policy Framework.

1. Introduction
Inflation targeting is a monetary policy regime has been used in monetary arena after 1990s. According to International Monetary Fund(IMF) inflation targeting involves the public announcement of medium-term numerical targets for inflation with an institutional commitment by the monetary authority to achieve these targets. Additional key features include increased communication with the public and the markets about the plans and objectives of monetary policymakers and increased accountability of the central bank for attaining its inflation objectives. Monetary policy decisions are guided by the deviation of forecasts of future inflation from the announced target, with the inflation forecast acting (implicitly or explicitly) as the intermediate target of monetary policy (Acharya, 2012).

Policymakers used to anchor their monetary policy by targeting a monetary aggregate, with expectation that controlling the demand for and supply of money, would enable them to bring down the rate of inflation. Unfortunately, monetary aggregate targeting proved unsuccessful because of instability in the money demand function. As a result to bring down the rate of inflation and to maintain it at a low level central bank adopted a policy with flexible exchange rate, is finally termed as Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) (Freedman and Laxton, 2009).

The first country to formally adopt inflation targeting was New Zealand in December 1989. Since then, many countries have joined the club including both industrialized countries (such as Australia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) and emerging economies (such as Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Czech Republic, Iceland, Israel, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, and South Africa), with the US being the most recent addition to the list in January 2012. Many other countries are in the process of establishing a full inflation-targeting regime; while others, like European Central Bank (ECB) remain implicit targeters. Only three countries, Finland, Spain and Slovakia, have abandoned inflation targeting and this was due to their adoption of the euro which, as governed by the ECB (www.centralbanking.com). There are four Asian countries namely South Korea, Thailand, Philippine and Indonesia, has endorsed IT as a new monetary policy regime. (Ito and Hayashi, 2004).

The objective of this paper is to review the current situation of inflation targeting and its prospects in Nepal. This paper is organized as follows. After the brief literature review in section two, third section provides a glimpse of prospect analysis in Nepal. and final section concludes the work.

2. Literature Review
2.1 Pre-requisite of Inflation Targeting

Inflation targeting is a monetary-policy strategy that is characterized by an announced numerical inflation target, an implementation of monetary policy that gives a major role to an inflation forecast. It has been called forecast targeting, and a high degree of transparency and accountability. It means adoption of inflation targeting is not just a policy declaration. For that certain pre-requisites must be fulfilled. Major pre-requisites suggested in literature are discussed as below.

2.1.1 Sole Target

One of the most important pre-requisite for adopting the inflation targeting is the absence of another targeted nominal variable such as wages, level of employment or nominal exchange rate. Having more than one target may destroy the credibility of both anchors and there might be conflicts among the objectives. Before declaring inflation targeting target must be define very lucidly whether it is point or band. If bans then what should be the width of that band. Moreover time horizon and choice of the price index must be maintained very properly (Tutar, 2002).

2.1.2 Autonomy of Central Bank

Debelle et.al (1998) argued for independency of central. The independence does not mean the full independence but implies at least instrumental independence which permits greater discretion in the conduct of monetary policy and which mainly implies that the central bank cannot finance the government budget. In the same manner, the central bank should not be required to attain low interest rates on public debt or to maintain a particular nominal exchange rate. There should not be any political pressure on the central bank to raise the rate of economic growth in such a way that is inconsistent with the achievement of the inflation target.

2.1.3 Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

Having autonomy of central bank does not mean that there is effectiveness of monetary policy. Effectiveness indicates to establish stable relationship between the inflation outcomes and monetary policy instruments. According to Jonsson (1999) in inflation targeting regime, monetary authorities have to be able to model inflation dynamics in the country and to forecast the inflation to a reasonable degree. So, the monetary authorities should have access to policy instruments that are effective in influencing the macroeconomic variables.  
  
2.1.4 Accountability and Transparency of Central Banks

A notable feature is found in New Zealand, whereby the governor who must report on inflation performance twice each year, may be dismissed prior to the end of his five year term  if the inflation rate falls outside its specified target band (McCallum, 1996). This shows the accountability of the respective authority which is most important factors for inflation targeting countries. Aliyu and Englama (2009) also demand to be informed about the process and progress made by central bank.
The increased accountability of the inflation targeting enables the monetary authority to monitor and enhance the understanding of expectations. It also decreases the possibility of time inconsistency trap, which leads to deviations from monetary authority's long-term objective. Moreover, it provides a good benchmark that can easily be observed by the agents in the economy (Hazirolan, 1999).
By means of transparency, private sector agents can monitor and question the authorities. advice, analysis, and actions. So, this forces the authorities to get their analysis right. Since private sector agents can easily observe any myopic policy strategy under a transparent monetary policy framework, there are severe constraints to surprising the public (Hazirolan, 1999).

2.1.5 Development of Financial Institutions

Aliyu and Englama (2009) categorized the inflation targeters on the basis of development of financial institutions. Proper functioning of financial institutions leads to degree of succession of inflation targeting because instruments used by central banks transmitted through the financial institutions. Thus, sound bank and financial institutions as well as effective management of monetary and capital market is prominently expected to have on the respective economy. 

2.1.6 Flexible Exchange rate System

Debelle et.al (1998) and Mishkin (2000) strongly argues flexible exchange rate as a one of the most important pre-requisite for inflation targeting. If exchange rate system is fixed then it is impossible to any government to maintain both exchange rate as well as inflation under control. Thus, to attain desirable rate of inflation, exchange rate must be flexible.

2.1.7 Effective Communication

Effective communication increases transparency of the monetary policy strategy through communication with the public and the markets about the plans, objectives, and decisions of the monetary authorities (Miskin, 2000). This is possible if central bank makes public announcement about the policy of targeting so that to attain the targeted band or point. 

2.1.8 Macroeconomics Indicators

Aliyu and Englama (2009) expect to have stable employment situation, satisfactory growth on GDP, desirable BOP and proper regulation over public expenditure. Autonomy of central bank and proper coordination between monetary fiscal and financial policy leads towards the desirable macroeconomic situations.

2.2 Types of Inflation Targeting

Aliyu and Englama (2009) have identified three category of inflation targeting they are;
2.2.1. Full Fledge Inflation Targeting (FFIT)
When a country is ready to adopt IT as its single nominal anchor upon which macroeconomic stability would be achieved. Full Fledge IT (FFIT) is suitable in a country with a sound financial environment and transparency, accountability and highly committed central bank. These elements are desirable to the attainment of the goals of Full Fledge IT.
2.2.2 Electic Inflation Targeting(EIT)
When a country pursues IT along with other monetary policy objective in a stable financial environment Electic IT is suitable. However, in such a condition central bank is relatively less accountable and transparent.
2.2.3 Inflation Targeting Lite (ITL)
ITL category is suitable to those countries, which have a low profile due to lack of strong or credible macroeconomic environment. ITL adopting countries usually float their exchange rate and announce an IT. But they usually do not attain the stated inflation target. 

One of the important thing about the inflation targeting is that it is not just a framework, which only focuses on maintaining inflation within targeted band. It concerns about the fluctuation on output and employment. Focusing monetary policy on inflation, according to them, does not imply that traditional stabilization goals are ignored. The monetary policy makers under inflation targeting are indifferent to the performance of the real economy is simply incorrect. Central banks, which are responsible for inflation targeting, continue to be concerned with fluctuations in output and employment in all the countries they have studied. They have found that the output and employment continue to remain concerns of policy makers after switching to inflation targeting. In fact it can be seen in all the inflation targeting countries have invariably undertaken disinflation only gradually (Bernanke et. al. , 2011).  

3. Contextualization

Nepal Rastra Bank's Strategic Plan (2006-2010) has disclosed about inflation targeting in its Functional Strategies. Neither second strategic plan (2012-2016) has reported progress about inflation targeting nor any research has been archived in Nepalese context. One empirical study has been conducted by Acharya (2012) using ARDL to cointegration to evaluate feasibility of inflation targeting in Nepal. 

Central bank of Nepal has enacted Nepal Rastra Bank Act -2058 and has been continuously formulating monetary policy annually. By laws, central bank is considered as an autonomy institution but significant dominance has been made by fiscal policy. Due to this reason effective implementation of monetary policy always in limbo. It impact adversely on all fiscal, monetary as well as financial institutions.

Regarding the relation between real GDP on price level theoretically it is assumed that there is negative relationship between real GDP and Price Level. But in fiscal year (FY) 2010/11, when food production (it includes paddy, maize, millet, buckwheat, wheat and barley.) has increased by 10.87% and reached to 8606742 metric tons. Due to an increase in food production it was expected by using the general rule of economics a decline in price of those goods. At the same fiscal year the price of food and food products has increased by 13.4% (Economic Survey 2011/12). It means rise in production does not show negative relation with the price level in Nepal which contradict the theory (Acharya, 2012).
Empirical result suggested by NRB(2007), Ginting (2007) and Acharya (2012) found that wholesale price index of India has positive impact on Nepalese price level. This result shows that Nepalese economy import inflation from India. It may be due to high trade concentration with India, pegged with Indian currency and open boarder between these two countries.
Nepal has been facing the sharp appreciation of the US dollar in this two years. It is not because of export fluctuation but due currency fixed with Indian currency. Nepal has not faced any direct impact, so far, from the global financial crisis too. This is because, its financial market is not open to short-term portfolio investments from abroad. Exports will fall faster as competitiveness of Nepalese products is going lower as other countries producing similar goods face the downturn for their export to the industrial nations (Pokheral, 2009). This is one of the most restrictive situation in Nepal to switch towards inflation targeting.
4. Conclusion

To switch monetary policy framework towards inflation targeting, central bank should have to fulfill pre-requisite first. Basically autonomy of central bank in real sense and build up transparency as well as good public communication are the most important pre-requisite that Nepal must have to fulfill. Moreover, government should have to solve the structural problems and need to address on the problem of market imperfection to upgrade its macroeconomic indicators. Top of all the existing exchange rate system with Indian currency must be addressed so that economy can move towards inflation targeting. 

References

Acharya, Santosh. (2012). Feasibility of Inflation Targeting in Nepal. Unpublished Master Thesis, Central Department of Economics, Tribhuvan University, Nepal.
Aliyu, Shehu. U. R, and Englama. (2009). Is Nigeria ready for inflation targeting? Journal of Money, Investment and Banking. 11: pp.27-41.
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Debelle, Guy., Masson, Paul., Savastano, Miguel., and Sharma, Sunil. (1998). Inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policy. International Monetary Fund.
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Ministry of Finance. (2011). Economic Survey 2011/12. Kathmandu: Ministry of Finance.
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Heikensten, Lars. (2011). Inflation targeting-the Swedish experience.(n.p.)
Ito, T., and Hayashi, T. (2004). Inflation targeting in Asia. Hong Kong: Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
Jonsson, G. (1999).The relative merits and implications of inflation targeting for South Africa. IMF Working Paper WP/99/116, Washington D.C.
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Mishkin, F. S. (2000a). From monetary targeting to inflation targeting: Lessons from the industrialized countries. Graduate School of Business and National Bureau of Economic Research, Columbia University. New York.
Mishkin, F.S. (2000). Inflation targeting in emerging market countries. American Economic Reviews. 90(2): pp.105-09).
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Business (Managerial) Economics

CONCEPT OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS
A business is activities perform by any organization through utilizing its financial, human, technical and informational resources to achieve the pre determined objectives. In course of this action business organization must use its resources as efficiently as possible since they are limited in supply and there are costs in acquiring and using them. These include employees (known as labor), machinery and buildings (known as capital), and the land on which the buildings stand. Businesses also have the expertise of their top managers (known as entrepreneurs) who put the labor, capital and land together to produce the finished products most efficiently. Their purpose, amongst other things, is to ensure the business is profitable and grows. If losses are made over time the business will close. Hence, entrepreneurs must think about what and how the business produces, and its long term direction.
Economics is, therefore, the study of how the resources land, labor, capital and enterprise are used or allocated by a country to meet its demands for goods, services and ideas, now and in the future. The resources are employed by businesses or firms and are also known as inputs to the production process, or factors of production.
Investopedia has considered business economics as a field in economics that deals with issues such as business organization, management, expansion and strategy. This studies might include how and why corporations expand, the impact of entrepreneurs, the interactions between corporations and the role of governments in regulation. Business economics explains how the policy adopted by ministry of finance and central bank influence to the business and what kind of world business scenario should be understand so that to expand and build up resistance of own business is answered by the business economics. Basically the important of this subject is to the business managers so that to realize the reality and real practices in the economy and its impact on the business on the two way - positive and negative.
To deal with the role of business economics it is necessary to discuss about the outputs of business. In general, goods and services are considered as an output of any business. But in broad sense ideas and externalities are also included as an business output which in general is included in study. Here we will discuss four output of any business.
Goods
Businesses is known as producers or manufacturer of goods and services. Goods are classified by economists under two main headings, consumer goods and producer goods. Examples of consumer goods include cars, mobiles, chocolate bars, Levis, compact discs, and personal computers if used at home for personal or leisure use. The people who buy them are consumers, or customers and they live in households. In contrast, producer goods, as the name suggests, are used to produce other goods. Examples of producer goods include robots used on assembly lines to manufacture cars, personal computers used in offices for work purposes, and cement mixers on building sites. Many businesses are, therefore, the customers of other businesses which buy their output.
Services
Services consist of the provision of non-physical items. The list of services are endless. It includes knowledge provided by teacher, services given by doctors, entertainment given by the football match between India and Nepal, listening to a live concert, working out at your local gym, staying in a hotel, watching a video of the latest movie (as opposed to the video as a physical object), and so on. In each case, consumers are using or consuming a particular service which gives it a distinctive character compared with a good. A service is used up in the act of consumption although it may live in our memory such as the fond remembrance of dry picnic with friends. Businesses also provide services to other businesses and, in that sense, the latter are consumers of the former’s products. For example cleaning agencies employ staff to clean offices in the evening or early morning when the work force are not there.
Ideas
An idea is intellectual property which can also be bought and sold. Examples include the ideas in a novel or computer software. It is not easy to buy or sell.  Of course, the book and floppy disk containing the ideas are goods.
Externalities
The production process of a business also creates another type of output which occurs to society as a whole but whose effect may not be reflected in a company’s accounts. This type of output is called an externality and may be a benefit to society or a cost. It occurs as a consequence of either production by businesses or consumption by an individual or household. Pollution caused by a factory is the obvious example of an externality and it imposes a cost on society which is known as negative externality. Conversely there may be external benefits, e.g. enjoying a neighbor's garden full of flowers in summer.
Above four output will be possible if they passes through the certain production process. The production process is the use of raw materials or inputs or factors of production, to produce outputs of goods, services and ideas; it may also produce externalities. These inputs consist of: 
Land
This includes not just what its name suggests but also what is found on it and in it – forests and the timber obtained from them, minerals such as crude oil, natural gas and diamonds, and even the fish in the sea. The cost to be paid by employing land, defined in its widest sense, in the production process, is known as rent.
Labor
This is that part of the population who work. Approximately half the Japanese population are too old to work, ill and so unable to work. Though the pace of development of Japan is not declining. They are not worried about having large no of old population but worrying about how to manage the labor they are coming there in. How the work force is determined, and how the number of unemployed are used in economy will be discussed in this book.
Capital
This word is used for machinery, factories, computers, office blocks and information technology. Capital loses its value over time as buildings suffer wear and tear, and so need maintenance, whilst computers become technologically obsolete. So businesses have to set money aside to replace capital as it wears out or becomes technologically obsolete; this is known as depreciation. The term capital is found to distinguish  as a  liquid form (money) and machine. This money may be used to finance a new office block or a new factory. Alternatively it may be used to purchase shares in existing companies. Interest is the return earned from making capital available to a business. Finally, working capital is the term used to describe stocks of components and raw materials waiting to be converted into finished goods, and the finished goods themselves, held in warehouses, for example, waiting to be delivered to retailers for sale.
Enterprise
 Enterprise or entrepreneurship is the resource provided by the entrepreneur. It is the expertise he/she provides to combine the other resources most efficiently to produce the output of goods or services. It requires managerial, financial, inter-personal and strategic abilities if the business is to succeed. Famous examples of entrepreneurs are Binod Chaudhary, Chairman of CG Group, Rupert Murdoch, chairman of the News Corporation which owns publishing and broadcasting businesses around the world, and Bill Gates who co-founded Microsoft.
 
Scarcity of resources
There is a limited supply of resources, i.e. they are scarce or finite, whereas the demand for goods and services produced from them is virtually infinite. This means resources have to be used by businesses and government as efficiently as possible to enable society to best supply what is needed to meet its own needs and demands. Every time a resource is used in one way it means that it cannot be used in other ways. Land used to build a by-pass cannot be used for housing, or as an industrial site, or left alone for the wildlife who live there. An economy therefore seeks to achieve allocative efficiency. This means that it wants to use its resources so efficiently that none are wasted. If it were to make any changes to their use no one could be better off except at the cost of someone else being worse off.
The costs of using resources
Each tutor at your university or college who teaches you is paid a salary or, if employed part time, a wage of between Rs. 4000 and Rs. 10000 per period. This is a cost for the university or college, called the historic cost. Similar costs apply to the use of other resources, as discussed above. For the economist, there is also a second cost to be taken into account, known as the opportunity cost. This is defined as the next best alternative foregone. For example your are learning here at college, because you have chosen to get education first, if you are not studying then you may be working as a assistant manager for a local marketing agency or bank. You forgone the income of working assistant manager so that to study at college. Here your opportunity cost is the tentative income of that post where you may have worked if not studying at college. So why does you study at college instead of working on  tutor teach when he/she could earn more money in business? The answer is that there are non-monetary returns, such as job-satisfaction, that provide sufficient benefit as to offer the best total return i.e. monetary and non-monetary.
RELATION OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS WITH TRADITIONAL ECONOMICS
Economics and Managerial Functions
Economics contributes a great deal towards the performance of managerial duties and responsibilities. Just as biology contributes to the medical professional and physics to engineering, economics contributes to the managerial profession. All other qualification being the same, managers with a working knowledge of economics can perform their functions more efficiently than those without it. The basic function of the managers of a business firm is to achieve the objective of the firm to the maximum possible extent with the limited resources placed at their disposal. It means economics is essentially the subject to study for the logic, tools and techniques of making optimum use of available resources to achieve the given ends.
In performing the function of manager, he has to take a number in conformity with the goals of the firm. Many business decisions are taken under the condition of uncertainty and risk. Uncertainty and risk arise mainly due to uncertain behavior of the market forces, changing business environment, emergency of competitors with highly competitive products, government policy, external influence on the domestic market and social and political changes in the country. The complexity of the present business world adds complexity to business decision making. However the degree of uncertainty and risk can be greatly reduced if market conditions are predicted with a high degree of reliability. The prediction of the future of the business environment alone is not sufficient. What is equally important is to take appropriate business and to formulate a business strategy in conformity with the goals of the firms.
Boumol has pointed out three main contribution of economic theory to business economics.
First, one of the most important thing which the economic theory can contribute to the management science is building analytical models which helps to recognize the structure of managerial problems, eliminate the minor details which might obstruct decision making and help to concentrate on the main issue.
Second, economic theory contributes to the business analysis 'a set of analysis method' which may not be applied directly to specific business problems, but they do enhance the analytical capabilities of the business analysts.
Thirdly, economics theories offer clarity to the various concepts used in business analysis which enables the managers to avoid conceptual pitfalls.
Business economics – How it differs from traditional economics?
Business economics uses largely the same concepts and terminology as economics and addresses many of the same issues. The students might therefore ask how and why a distinction is made between the two. Authors would argue that business economics is worthy of being distinguished and studied separately for a number of reasons. First and foremost, business economics specifically seeks to investigate and analyze how and why businesses behave as they do, and what the implications of their actions are for the industry in which they operate, and for the economy as a whole. Businesses are constrained in their operations by many factors, both internal and external. The internal factors include: the types of resources businesses use, their availability, and how they are combined together in the production process; the nature and levels of the costs businesses incur in producing their goods or services; and the extent to which growth can be achieved internally as opposed to by acquisitions or mergers.
Externally, businesses face constraints from the types of market in which they operate: how competitive are they, for example, and hence how easy to enter or leave; what is the level of demand for the products they produce, and the trends in this demand over time. Other constraints are from policies imposed by the government in relation to competition, minimum wages paid and so on. Additionally, businesses have to work within the constraints imposed on them by the economy. In times of economic recession, for instance, falling consumer demand due to reduced incomes and  rising unemployment may limit the ability of businesses to launch new products, diversify into new markets or even survive. Therefore, business economics seeks to analyze these constraints which face businesses, draw conclusions as to how and why businesses behave as they do, and analyze the implications of such behavior. Business economics also draws on a wide range of different theories from a variety of different disciplines of which economics is just one, albeit the main one. Economics has had a major impact on the development of other intellectual disciplines such as business strategy, organizational behavior, human resource management and marketing. All of these have drawn on it for parts of their theoretical content and, in turn, business economics draws on developments in these other areas.
Business and Economics
Business is an Economic Activity
An economic activities involves the task of adjusting the resources (means) to outputs (ends) or the ends to means. An economic activity may assume different forms such as consumption, production, distribution and exchange. The nature of business differs, depending upon the form of economic activities being undertaken and organized. For example manufacture is primarily concerned with production; the stock exchange business is mainly concerned with the buying and selling of shares and debenture; the business of government is to run the administration. The government may also own control and manage public enterprises. The business of banks is to facilitate transactions with short term and long term funds. These examples can be easily multiplied. The point to be noted is that each business has a target to achieve and for this purpose each business has some resources at its disposal. Sometimes the target has to be matched with the given resources and sometime the resources have to be matched with the given target. Either way the task of business is to optimize the outcome of economic activities.
A business Firm is an Economic Unit
A business firm is essentially a transformation unit, it transform inputs into outputs of goods and services or a combination of both. The nature of input requirements and the types of output flows are determined by the size, structure, location and efficiency of the business firm under consideration. Business firms may be different sizes and forms. They may undertake different types of activities such as mining, manufacturer, farming trading transport, banking etc. The motivational objective underlying all these activities is the same viz., profit maximization in the long run. Profit is essentially a surplus value- the value of outputs in excess of the values of inputs or the surplus of revenue over the cost, a business firm undertakes transformational process to generate this surplus value. The firm can grow future if the surplus value is productively invested. Firm therefore carefully plans the optimum allocation of resources to get optimum production. The entries process of creating, mobilization and utilization of the surplus constitutes the economic activity of the business firm.
Business Decision Making is an Economic Process
Decision making involves making a choice from a set of alternative courses of action. choice is at the root of all economic activity. The question of choice and evaluation arises because of the relative scarcity of resources. If the resources had not been scared an unlimited amount of ends could have been met. But the situation of resource constraint is very real. A business firm thinks seriously about the optimum allocation of resources because resources are limited in supply and most resources have alternative uses. The firm therefore intends to get the best out of given resources or to minimize the use of resources for achieving a specific target. In other words when inputs is the constraining factor, the form's decision variable is the output. And when output is the constraining factor then the firm's decision variables is the input. Whatever may be the decision variable, procurement or production, distribution or sale, output or input, decision making is invariably the process of selecting the best available alternative. That is what makes it an economic pursuit.

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