Lecturing Social Media Analytics

I remember that year—it was 2009 when I first signed up for Facebook. Then, making random posts, comments, and tags, to having around 10 social profiles, didn't just happen overnight. It was fun to learn and grow with time.

In the last 19 years, I have used 3 feature phones ☎️ and 5 smartphones 📱, and created emails in Yahoo, Hotmail, and Gmail, which was an unexpected shift for me.

Now, I am lecturing on social media analytics, learning a lot about search engines and their algorithms, sharing insights on social media, and also pinpointing the importance of such platforms for small-to-multi-national companies to create brand value and expand their market presence.

Now that AI is embedded in their algorithms, the issue of #data_governance stands at the top of any country’s laws. DATA has become more popular, powerful, and influential for everyone involved in local-to-national-to-regional-to-global platforms.

I am overwhelmed with the scale of its existence and expansion. I feel like I am living in history. With my grandkids, I can share these stories non-stop for hours and hours, and they will listen to us with jaw-dropping amazement 🥳.

It's loud and clear that the new scope of opportunity is being a Social Media Analyst. However, what I enjoy most in the job is taking selfies with my students. They are future social media analysts 🎉.

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If You Bought $1K of Twitter Before Elon Musk Took Over, Here’s How Much You’d Have Today

 

John Csiszar
December 13, 2024 4 min read

hapabapa / Getty Images

Why Is X’s Valuation So Low?

What Is the Future Direction of X?

X, formerly known as Twitter, has hit a rough patch ever since the outspoken CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, bought it for $44 billion in October 2022. 

 

While now a private company, the estimated valuation of X has fallen dramatically since Musk took over the helm. While Musk’s public profile has been boosted even more in recent months due to his close connection with President-elect Donald Trump and his appointment to the newly formed “Department of Government Efficiency,” the problems with X remain. 

 

Here’s a look at how much X’s valuation has fallen since Elon Musk took over, what may have caused the decline, and what the future may hold for the company.

X/Twitter’s Valuation Decline

Elon Musk paid $54.20 per share for Twitter when he completed his acquisition on Oct. 28, 2022. The total purchase price was approximately $44 billion. This transaction made X/Twitter a private company, meaning it cannot be valued on the public market by simply looking at its stock price and outstanding shares.

However, investment firms such as Fidelity are able to make informed estimates as to the value of private companies based on a number of factors, such as cash flow, growth, capital raises, comparable company valuation and so on.

As of October 2023, one year after Musk took the company private, Fidelity valued X at $19 billion, down from its acquisition value of $44 billion. By October 2024, Fidelity’s valuation had plummeted even more, all the way down to $9.4 billion. That represents a decline of almost exactly 50% to 50.5%, to be exact.

How Much Would You Have If You’d Invested $1,000 in Twitter?

If you bought Twitter before Musk took the company private, you’d actually be in good shape. As a private investor, you would have received $54.20 per share for your Twitter investment.

But assuming you were able to hold onto your shares, the $1,000 you originally invested would now be worth $495, having lost more than half their value.

The reasons for X’s tumble in valuation are multi-fold, with no single factor causing the drop. According to Kantar, at least part of the reason is likely fundamental.

The analytics company said that 26% of marketing firms planned to cut down their ad spending on X next year, more than on any other social media platform. Already, the company has lost hundreds of millions in advertising dollars in 2024 alone. X was also regarded as less trustworthy and innovative than YouTube, Instagram or TikTok.

The direction of the company has also concerned many investors, as Musk promptly laid off 50% of Twitter’s staff and re-opened the platform to controversial commentators like Alex Jones. Musk himself has made plenty of controversial comments, including some deemed antisemitic, which has further alienated some advertisers and investors.

Anecdotally, some worry that Musk’s hands are simply too full to devote as much attention to X as a CEO should. As Musk also runs Tesla, the Boring Company, and SpaceX — and is about to take the helm of the Department of Government Efficiency — some investors fear that X is getting the short end of the stick in terms of the billionaire’s attention.

For better or worse, Musk has announced that he intends to completely change the direction of X and make it much more than a simple social media platform.

To take advantage of the boom in fintech, Musk is attempting to turn X into a central hub for users’ financial needs, offering everything from Venmo-like payments to money management and general financial tools. Musk also intends to put his technological know-how into use by adding AI functionality to X.

Whether or not these efforts succeed is anyone’s guess at this point. But those investors still holding shares of X are hoping to recover from the more than 50% loss since Musk took over.

This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: If You Bought $1K of Twitter Before Elon Musk Took Over, Here’s How Much You’d Have Today

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A "Lost Decade" in Nepalese Economy

I was looking for the dynamics of fiscal and monetary policy in the Nepalese economy.  Both have a specific economic and political explanation, though monetary policy stands more economic connotation than the fiscal one. Although the central bank has a specialized department and relatively competent human resources, even their document seems are unable to get the real picture of the economy.

Since 2004/05 to 20015/16 inflation remains higher than the GDP growth in Nepal. It happened not just like it to be.  In reality, it was committed because of the political, structural, and market-based phenomenon that are not even looked for a reason.

I have gone through another aspect to analyze the Nepalese economy whether it is 'paradigm shift '. Reviewing the documents and consulting with then officer bearer, I am almost convinced with the situation of 'paradigm lost' rather in Nepalese economy. Simply this conclusion is driven due to the failure of understanding the fundamentals of how the economy works.

Thus, the period 2004 to 2016, should be named as a 'lost decade' in Economic history of Nepal. It became so due to the worst ever understanding about the role of every economic actor.

Table-1: Relationship Between Real GDP Growth and CPI in Nepal

Note: This issue is elaborated further in an article and the link of the article is in comment box.

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Provision of Grants (Fiscal Equalization, Conditional, Complementary and Special) in Nepal

Generally in federal countries, Sub-national governments (SNGs) receives intergovernmental grants to finance their assigned activities and implement national policies. Grants are used to subsidies of services and equalization of the grants. However, the allocation of grants is found to be complex in its governance (OECD, 2006).  

According to the world bank, the government introduces intergovernmental transfers for four reasons. First one is to maintain the vertical balance. Vertical imbalances arise between the SNGs due to the imbalance between the expenditure responsibilities and revenue raising power, this may cause to a deficiency in service delivery made by SNGs. The second reason is to equalize the capacities of the resources while in SNGs, their revenue raising capacity varies. Third one is the externalities. Due to the low revenue capacity SNGs under-spend where substantial external benefits ensure-like spending on health and education by their own resources. And the last reason shows that intergovernmental is needed for the public financing system Bahl (2000).

In Nepal, grants stand for the most important source of financing for the SNGs-State and Local Levels. There are four types of grants namely: Fiscal Equalization, Conditional, Complementary and Special Grants. These grants are allocated by the National Natural Resources and Fiscal Commission(NNRFC) with a certain basis and criteria. The objectives and criterion for distribution of these grants are presented in the table.

S.N	Types of Grants	Objective of Grants	Criterion of Distribution
1	Fiscal Equalization	To minimize the Vertical Fiscal Imbalances.	Distribute fiscal equalization grants to the State and Local Level on the basis of their need for expenditures and revenue capacity.
2	Conditional	To implement any project of the State or Local Level or the Government of Nepal on the basis as prescribed by the Commission.	Specify necessary terms and conditions in relation to the implementation of the project and the concerned State and Local Level shall abide by such terms and conditions.
3	Complementary	To implement any project related to infrastructure development in the State and Local Level.	While providing complementary grants the following criteria shall be taken into account: Feasibility of the project Project cost Outputs or benefits to be achieved from the project Financial and physical capacity or human resources for the implementation of the project Need and priority of the project
4	Special	To operate the specific project by the State or Local Level.	Special grants have any of the following objectives: To develop and deliver basic services like education, health and drinking water To achieve balanced development of inter-State or inter-local level To uplift or develop the class or community discriminated economically, socially or in any other form

References:

Bahl, Roy (2000). Intergovernmental transfers in developing and transition countries: Principles and practice. Municipal Finance. The World Bank

OECD (2006). Intergovernmental transfers and decentralized public spending.  WP No 3.

IGFAA (2074). Intergovernmental Fiscal Arrangement Act, 2074

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Trade Issues left to deal in Nepal

The wide trade deficit has become the normal phenomenon of the Nepalese economy. Liberalization has been initiated with the expectation that there will be the free flow of goods and services through which reciprocal benefit can reap up through the country's export, import and industrial development. Considering the same line, Nepal became the 154th member nation of WTO in 2004. The Nepal Trade Integration Strategy  (NTIS), 2010 has introduced in which 17 product are targeted to strengthen the competitiveness of the Nepalese trade and later it was upgraded by NTIS, 2016 that recognizes potentials for product and value chain development in sectors: i). Agro and forest products (cardamom; ginger; tea; and medicinal and aromatic plants); ii). Craft and manufacturing products (all fabrics, textile, yarn and rope; leather; footwear; chyangra pashmina; and, knotted carpets); and iii). Services (skilled and semi-skilled professionals in various categories; Information Technology and Business Process Outsourcing [IT and BPO]; and tourism [including leisure, business, education, and medical]). Being the member of WTO, Trade policy of Nepal should be reviewed in a periodic manner. Trade and Policy Review Body (TPRB), an institution of WTO, works regularly on it and as a result, we do have Trade Policy 2015 in execution.

Being the part of regional blocs like SAFTA, BIMSTEC and global organization like WTO, UNCTAD, we do have different challenges in the outer world. Inside the country, we are also facing capacity based problems to the private sector, institutional hindrances on the governmental side and also the geo-political hindrances that left country back on trade. Trade does not stand alone elsewhere in the world. It should have a strong foundation to develop, institution to carry on and competitiveness to retain in the international market. Now with the change in governance system and the establishment of stable government indicates to start the new journey of international trade in days to come.

To take steps for promotion of trade, export-led growth, following issues are needed to be addressed appropriately on time.

a. Supply and Value Chain of NTIS selected goods

b. Trade facilitation (Information, transportation, storage, quarantine related)

c. Non-tariff Mechanism in Trade

d. Informal trade

Further discussion on these issues will be made on the later blog.

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Comparison between Incumbent and Past Governors of Nepal.

Dr Yubraj Khatiwada

When Dr Khatiwada joined the office as a governor, most of the macroeconomic indicators were forced people to ask whether Nepal is going to be a failed economy. The credit crunch, high inflation and low economic growth were the major challenges in front of him. At the end of his tenure, he gained faith from the people that he protected the economy through micro-monetary management. He framed the monetary system of the country. He introduced Merger and Acquisition aiming to minimise the cross holding in different banks. Later on, it became the best tool to stabilise the banking system of the country. 

His best effort was found in real estate investment, in which he caps the banking lending, which becomes a turning point for protecting this industry from an accident. His practices towards using monetary instrument were significant. His personality worked on implementing the monetary policy throughout his tenure. Unfortunately, he was unable to bring the inflation under control during his business period.

He made deprived sector lending mandatory. Financial inclusion, financial literacy, financial access were the most important initiation he took, which helped to expand the banking services to the rural area.

He introduced base rate but unable to make functional of "interest rate corridor". Every monetary policy he introduced had great value for the economy, though his approach to grip the activities of BAFIs were criticised by Banking Pundits saying that it was against the free market economy.

Dr. Chranjibi Nepal

When Dr Nepal joined governor office, there was a big challenge in front of him maintaining the legacy that has been created by his predecessor. But non-economic factors like the earthquake, border blockage prejudiced on Nepalese economy, distorted the effective functioning of monetary policy.

His first monetary policy introduced the new ceiling on paid-up capital to all Bank and Financial Institutions. It led to introduce different instruments in the monetary sector without evaluating its impact. He has introduced three monetary policy, and each was found to be more mature than the previous. In his previous monetary policies, he tried to implement interest rate corridor, but lower and upper bound was supposed to use as a policy rate, which may not be more effective in attaining the objectives of the monetary policy. His big jump was increasing the paid up capital of the Bank and Financial Institutions (BAFIs), in order to increase the capacity of the banks, which is still ongoing. Monetary policy presented by Dr Nepal in the case of foreign exchange is flexible and we can guess same will be in upcoming days.

He is lucky enough too. In this fiscal 2073/74 economy measures more than 6.5 % of economic growth whereas inflation remains below 5%. This credit goes to him as well, but at the same fiscal capital expenditure remains less than 45% only. It doubts the robustness of the transmission channel of monetary policy to attain the high and sustainability in the growth.

He is trying to adjust the monetary system of the country in the federal structure. In the monetary policy of fiscal 2074/75, planned to establish at least one branch of a bank in each local government that counts 744. Moreover, there will be is a re-lending fund with capital Rs 20 Billion and planning to invest on prioritised as well as deprived sectors, which should be recognised as a continuation of the initiation made by his predecessor.

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