Inflation is a Hidden form of Tax in Nepal: A Granger Causality Test

Abstract 

Inflation is taken as a secret form of taxing people, thus in literature it is also known as an indirect form of tax. This has been tested by using the secondary data since 1975 to 2010 on government tax revenue (GTAX) and national consumer price index (NCPI) of Nepal. Initially, ADF test, then Granger Causality and finally OLS has been conducted. Granger Causality has suggested that NCPI causes GTAX which helped later to consider NCPI as an independent variable and GTAX as a dependent variable. After conducting OLS test it is found that NCPI impacts GTAX directly (Acharya, 2014). 

Key Words: Inflation, Tax, Granger Causality and OLS. 

Reference:

Acharya, S. (2014). Inflation is a hidden form of tax in Nepal: Granger Causality test. Khwopa Journal, 1(1), 61–75.

Four Growth Theories

Keynesian Economics

Golden Section Search Method: Fortran f90

Consider the nonlinear equation f(x)=4x2 –exp(x). Write a Fortran program that uses the Golden Section Search Method to find the solution accurate to within 10-6 for the nonlinear equation on [4,8]. 

Sauce Code:

Program  Assignmentq2

implicit none

real:: f

real::x, r, q1, q2,a, b, tol=1.0e-6

!Define Interval and Function

f(x) = 4*x**2-exp(x)

a=4

b=8

print*, "a", a, "b", b

!Evaluation of the function at the end point

r=(sqrt(5.0)-1)/2

q1=b-r*(b-a)

q2=a+r*(b-a)

 print*, "q1",q1, "q2", q2

 ! Creating Loop

!if ((b-a)<=tol) stop

do while ((b-a)>tol)

     !if(f(a)*f(b)<=0) then

     if(f(a)*f(q2)<=0) then

         b=q2

         q2=q1

         q1=b-r*(b-a)

     else

         a=q1

         q1=q2

         q2=a+r*(b-a)

    print*, "q1",q1, "q2", q2, "a", a, "b", b

     end if 

     end do

end program assignmentq2 

Gaussian Elimination Method: Fortran f90

 Question:

Solve the following system of linear equations using Gaussian Elimination using Fortran.

x1 + x2 - x3 + x4 - x5 = 2

2x1+ 2 x2 + x3 - x4 + x5 = 4

3x1 + x2-3 x3 -2x4+ 3 x5 = 8

4x1 + x2 - x3 +4 x4 -5x5 =16

16x1 -x2 + x3 - x4 - x5 =32

 

Solution:

program main

implicit none

integer, parameter :: n=5

double precision:: a(n,n), b(n), x(n)

integer:: i,j

! matrix A

  data (a(1,i), i=1,5) /  1.0,  1.0,  -1.0, 1.0, -1.0 /

  data (a(2,i), i=1,5) /  2.0,  2.0,  1.0, -1.0, 1.0 /

  data (a(3,i), i=1,5) /  3.0,  1.0,  -3.0, -2.0, 3.0 /

  data (a(4,i), i=1,5) /  4.0,  1.0,  -1.0, 4.0, -5.0 /

  data (a(5,i), i=1,5) /  16.0, -1.0, 1.0, -1.0, -1.0 /

! matrix b

  data (b(i),   i=1,5) /  2.0, 4.0, 8.0, 16.0, 32.0 /


! print a header and the original equations

  write (*,200)

  do i=1,n

     write (*,201) (a(i,j),j=1,n), b(i)

  end do


  call gauss_2(a,b,x,n)


! print matrix A and vector b after the elimination 

  write (*,202)

  do i = 1,n

     write (*,201)  (a(i,j),j=1,n), b(i)

  end do

! print solutions

  write (*,203)

  write (*,201) (x(i),i=1,n)

200 format (' Gauss elimination with scaling and pivoting ' &

    ,/,/,' Matrix A and vector b')

201 format (6f12.6)

202 format (/,' Matrix A and vector b after elimination')

203 format (/,' Solutions x(n)')

end

subroutine gauss_2(a,b,x,n)

implicit none 

integer:: n

double precision:: a(n,n), b(n), x(n)

double precision:: s(n)

double precision:: c, pivot, store

integer:: i, j, k, l


! step 1: begin forward elimination

do k=1, n-1


! step 2: "scaling"

! s(i) will have the largest element from row i 

  do i=k,n                       

    s(i) = 0.0

    do j=k,n                    

      s(i) = max(s(i),abs(a(i,j)))

    end do

  end do


! "pivoting 1" 

! row with the largest pivoting element

  pivot = abs(a(k,k)/s(k))

  l = k

  do j=k+1,n

    if(abs(a(j,k)/s(j)) > pivot) then

      pivot = abs(a(j,k)/s(j))

      l = j

    end if

  end do


! Check if the system has a sigular matrix

  if(pivot == 0.0) then

    write(*,*) ' The matrix is sigular '

    return

  end if


! "pivoting 2" interchange rows k and l (if needed)

if (l /= k) then

  do j=k,n

     store = a(k,j)

     a(k,j) = a(l,j)

     a(l,j) = store

  end do

  store = b(k)

  b(k) = b(l)

  b(l) = store

end if


! elimination (after scaling and pivoting)

   do i=k+1,n

      c=a(i,k)/a(k,k)

      a(i,k) = 0.0

      b(i)=b(i)- c*b(k)

      do j=k+1,n

         a(i,j) = a(i,j)-c*a(k,j)

      end do

   end do

end do


! backward substitution 

x(n) = b(n)/a(n,n)

do i=n-1,1,-1

   c=0.0

   do j=i+1,n

     c= c + a(i,j)*x(j)

   end do 

   x(i) = (b(i)- c)/a(i,i)

end do

end subroutine gauss_2

A "Lost Decade" in Nepalese Economy


I was looking for the dynamics of fiscal and monetary policy in the Nepalese economy.  Both have a specific economic and political explanation, though monetary policy stands more economic connotation than the fiscal one. Although the central bank has a specialized department and relatively competent human resources, even their document seems are unable to get the real picture of the economy.

Since 2004/05 to 20015/16 inflation remains higher than the GDP growth in Nepal. It happened not just like it to be.  In reality, it was committed because of the political, structural, and market-based phenomenon that are not even looked for a reason.

I have gone through another aspect to analyze the Nepalese economy whether it is 'paradigm shift '. Reviewing the documents and consulting with then officer bearer, I am almost convinced with the situation of 'paradigm lost' rather in Nepalese economy. Simply this conclusion is driven due to the failure of understanding the fundamentals of how the economy works.

Thus, the period 2004 to 2016, should be named as a 'lost decade' in Economic history of Nepal. It became so due to the worst ever understanding about the role of every economic actor.

Table-1: Relationship Between Real GDP Growth and CPI in Nepal


Note: This issue is elaborated further in an article and the link of the article is in comment box.

Provision of Grants (Fiscal Equalization, Conditional, Complementary and Special) in Nepal


Generally in federal countries, Sub-national governments (SNGs) receives intergovernmental grants to finance their assigned activities and implement national policies. Grants are used to subsidies of services and equalization of the grants. However, the allocation of grants is found to be complex in its governance (OECD, 2006).  

According to the world bank, the government introduces intergovernmental transfers for four reasons. First one is to maintain the vertical balance. Vertical imbalances arise between the SNGs due to the imbalance between the expenditure responsibilities and revenue raising power, this may cause to a deficiency in service delivery made by SNGs. The second reason is to equalize the capacities of the resources while in SNGs, their revenue raising capacity varies. Third one is the externalities. Due to the low revenue capacity SNGs under-spend where substantial external benefits ensure-like spending on health and education by their own resources. And the last reason shows that intergovernmental is needed for the public financing system Bahl (2000).

In Nepal, grants stand for the most important source of financing for the SNGs-State and Local Levels. There are four types of grants namely: Fiscal Equalization, Conditional, Complementary and Special Grants. These grants are allocated by the National Natural Resources and Fiscal Commission(NNRFC) with a certain basis and criteria. The objectives and criterion for distribution of these grants are presented in the table.

S.N Types of Grants Objective of Grants Criterion of Distribution
1 Fiscal Equalization To minimize the Vertical Fiscal Imbalances. Distribute fiscal equalization grants to the State and Local Level on the basis of their need for expenditures and revenue capacity.
2 Conditional To implement any project of the State or Local Level or the Government of Nepal on the basis as prescribed by the Commission. Specify necessary terms and conditions in relation to the implementation of the project and the concerned State and Local Level shall abide by such terms and conditions.
3 Complementary To implement any project related to infrastructure development in the State and Local Level. While providing complementary grants the following criteria shall be taken into account:
  • Feasibility of the project
  • Project cost
  • Outputs or benefits to be achieved from the project
  • Financial and physical capacity or human resources for the implementation of the project
  • Need and priority of the project
4 Special To operate the specific project by the State or Local Level. Special grants have any of the following objectives:
  • To develop and deliver basic services like education, health and drinking water
  • To achieve balanced development of inter-State or inter-local level
  • To uplift or develop the class or community discriminated economically, socially or in any other form

References:

Bahl, Roy (2000). Intergovernmental transfers in developing and transition countries: Principles and practice. Municipal Finance. The World Bank