Theories of Public Expenditure: Paradigm Shifts from Classical Foundations to Modern Insights

Background

Public expenditure plays a fundamental role in economic development, governance, and social welfare. Over the years, economists and political scientists have developed several theories to explain government spending patterns. However, these theories have not remained static — they have undergone major paradigm shifts as new data, methodologies, and perspectives emerged.

This article traces the evolution of these theories, spotlighting the key shifts that transformed how we understand public expenditure.

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1. The Classical Paradigm: Wagner’s Law (Late 19th Century)

Paradigm: Economic development leads to larger government.

• Adolph Wagner proposed that as economies industrialize and grow richer, government activities and expenditures naturally expand.

• Government spending shifts from traditional roles (defense, law enforcement) to welfare, infrastructure, education, and regulation.

Why it was revolutionary:
This was the first systematic theory linking economic growth with public expenditure growth, establishing a positive and almost automatic relationship.

Reference:

• Wagner, A. (1883). Economics of Public Finance.

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2. The Displacement Effect: Peacock-Wiseman Hypothesis (Mid-20th Century)

Paradigm shift: From smooth growth to “step-like” jumps in expenditure.

• Peacock and Wiseman challenged the idea of gradual growth by showing that crises like wars or economic shocks cause abrupt increases in spending.

• Public tolerance for taxation spikes during crises, permanently shifting the expenditure baseline upward.

Significance:
This shifted the view from steady growth to recognizing political and social tolerance as key factors driving expenditure jumps, introducing a more realistic, dynamic pattern.

References:

• Peacock, A.T., & Wiseman, J. (1961). The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom. Princeton University Press.

• Peacock, A.T., & Wiseman, J. (1967). The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom (2nd ed.). Princeton University Press.

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3. The Political Economy Turn (Late 20th Century)

Paradigm shift: Public expenditure is shaped by political incentives and institutions, not just economic growth.

• Theories like Public Choice introduced the idea that politicians and interest groups influence spending decisions for electoral gains or self-interest.

• Social Contract Theory framed expenditure as part of collective agreements to provide public goods that markets cannot efficiently supply.

Impact:
This broadened the analysis beyond pure economics, integrating political science and ethics to explain expenditure behavior.

References:

• Buchanan, J.M., & Tullock, G. (1962). The Calculus of Consent. University of Michigan Press.

• Rawls, J. (1971). A Theory of Justice. Harvard University Press.

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4. Endogeneity and Bidirectional Causality (1990s–2000s)

Paradigm shift: Questioning the direction of causality between economic growth and public expenditure.

• Contrary to Wagner’s one-way causality, research showed that public expenditure itself can stimulate economic growth.

• Governments are not passive followers of economic growth; their spending decisions actively influence development.

Why it matters:
This led to more nuanced models that treat growth and spending as mutually influencing variables, demanding careful empirical analysis.

References:

• Haug, A.A., & Sæther, E.A. (2018). The Wagner’s Law Debate: A Meta-Analysis. Journal of Public Economics, 164, 41-51.

• Zhang, Y. (2015). Re-examining the Relationship between Economic Growth and Government Expenditure. Economic Modelling, 48, 60-68.

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5. Institutions and Governance Focus (Early 2000s Onwards)

Paradigm shift: Institutional quality determines the efficiency and impact of public expenditure.

• Economists like Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson emphasized how governance, corruption control, and rule of law affect public spending outcomes.

• Weak institutions can lead to ineffective or excessive spending without growth benefits.

Significance:
This shifted attention to "how" governments spend, not just "how much," making governance reforms central to public expenditure debates.

References:

• Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J.A. (2001). The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369-1401.

• Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5430.

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6. Fiscal Federalism and Decentralization (2000s–Present)

Paradigm shift: Decentralization changes expenditure patterns and accountability.

• Theories now recognize that shifting spending responsibilities to local governments affects efficiency, equity, and growth.

• Optimal public expenditure requires balancing central authority with local autonomy.

Impact:
This added complexity, recognizing multiple government layers influencing expenditure decisions.

References:

• Oates, W.E. (1999). An Essay on Fiscal Federalism. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(3), 1120-1149.

• Rodden, J. (2006). Hamilton’s Paradox: The Promise and Peril of Fiscal Federalism. Cambridge University Press.

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7. Behavioral Economics and Experimental Approaches (2010s–Present)

Paradigm shift: Incorporating human psychology and social norms into public finance theory.

• Recognizes that taxpayer behavior and public acceptance depend on biases, trust, and social context.

• This helps explain variations in public support for taxation and expenditure policies.

Why it’s important:
Public finance policies now consider behavioral factors, improving design and communication strategies.

References:

• Besley, T., & Coate, S. (1997). An Economic Model of Representative Democracy. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(1), 85-114.

• Thaler, R.H., & Sunstein, C.R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. Yale University Press.

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Summary Table of Paradigm Shifts in Public Expenditure Theories

Period	Paradigm Shift	Key Contributions
Late 19th Century	Economic growth drives government size (Wagner’s Law)	Government grows naturally with development
Mid-20th Century	Stepwise expenditure growth due to crises (Peacock-Wiseman)	Political tolerance shifts during crises
Late 20th Century	Political economy: politics shapes expenditure	Public Choice and Social Contract theories
1990s–2000s	Bidirectional causality between growth and spending	Government spending also fuels growth
Early 2000s onwards	Institutional quality determines expenditure impact	Governance reforms key to effective spending
2000s–Present	Decentralization changes expenditure dynamics	Fiscal federalism theory
2010s–Present	Behavioral economics integrates psychology	Explains taxpayer attitudes and support

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Conclusion

Theories of public expenditure have evolved from simple economic growth models to rich, interdisciplinary frameworks that account for politics, institutions, and human behavior. Recognizing these paradigm shifts enables us to better analyze government spending and design policies that promote efficient and equitable public finance.

Thank You!

Note: This content is re-written of "Theories of Public Expenditure".

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Why Nepal is Still Developing and What It Can Learn from Australia

 

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Introduction

Nepal is a country full of resilience, cultural heritage, and natural beauty. Over the past few decades, it has made significant strides in health, education, and infrastructure. Yet, it still falls under the "developing" category. Why is that the case? And what can Nepal learn from developed countries like Australia to accelerate its journey toward inclusive growth?

This article examines Nepal’s development status by comparing it to Australia. Using clear data and visualizations, we explore where Nepal stands, what gaps exist, and how targeted improvements can help uplift millions of Nepalese lives. The goal is not to criticize but to provide insights for policymakers, educators, and citizens who want a better future for Nepal.

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Data Collection and Analysis

The analysis uses reliable data from the World Bank, UNDP, and other international development agencies. Seven key indicators were chosen to evaluate a country's overall development level:

• GDP per capita (USD)

• Human Development Index (HDI) Rank

• Life Expectancy (years)

• Poverty Rate (%)

• Unemployment Rate (%)

• Access to Clean Water (%)

• Education Index (0-1)

Comparison Table: Nepal vs Australia

Indicator	Australia	Nepal
GDP per capita (USD)	67,500	1,400
HDI Rank (2023)	5	146
Life Expectancy (years)	83.0	71.2
Poverty Rate (%)	13.4	24.3
Unemployment Rate (%)	4.0	11.1
Access to Clean Water (%)	99.5	90.8
Education Index (0–1 scale)	0.929	0.567

This data highlights that while Nepal has made progress, significant challenges still remain.

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Data Insight Analysis

1. Overall Development Gap

Nepal and Australia across the seven indicators clearly shows the performance gap.

Insights:

• Nepal's GDP per capita is only 2% of Australia’s.

• The HDI rank difference is massive: Australia ranks 5th globally; Nepal is 146th.

• Education and access to basic services like clean water remain key barriers.

2. GDP vs Life Expectancy

A scatter plot comparing GDP per capita and life expectancy illustrates how wealthier nations tend to have healthier populations.

Insights:

• Australia’s higher GDP translates into better healthcare, nutrition, and public health policies.

• Nepal’s growing GDP hasn't yet resulted in proportional improvements in life expectancy.

• Health investments and better public services are needed to close this gap.

3. Education and Infrastructure

A stacked bar graph displays Education Index and Access to Clean Water as foundational components of human development.

Insights:

• Nepal is progressing, but the pace is slow.

• Quality education and basic infrastructure are vital to lift people out of poverty and create jobs at home.

• Australia’s near-universal clean water access and high education scores are outcomes of long-term planning.

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Conclusion: Why Nepal is Still Developing and What It Can Learn

Nepal remains a developing country due to a mix of economic, political, and infrastructural limitations:

• Low income levels and limited job creation.

• Poor public services in rural areas.

• Political instability that hinders long-term planning.

• Dependence on remittance, rather than domestic production.

However, Nepal has strengths it can build on: a young population, rich cultural capital, and strong community networks.

Lessons from Australia for Nepal

1. Strengthen Education Systems

   • Increase investment in schools and teachers.

   • Expand access to vocational and digital education.

2. Improve Healthcare Access

   • Focus on maternal and rural healthcare.

   • Create affordable and universal healthcare policies.

3. Build Reliable Infrastructure

   • Ensure clean water access for 100% of the population.

   • Invest in roads, internet, and energy in remote areas.

4. Foster Good Governance

   • Reduce corruption and increase transparency.

   • Implement long-term, citizen-focused policies.

5. Create Jobs at Home

   • Promote entrepreneurship and local industries.

   • Reduce overdependence on remittance.

Nepal is on the path to progress, but it must prioritize human development, not just economic statistics. If lessons from countries like Australia are adapted thoughtfully, Nepal can accelerate its transformation from a developing to a thriving nation.

The future of Nepal depends not just on how much the economy grows, but how much that growth improves the lives of its people.

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Impact of Trade, Remittance and BOP on the Economic Growth of Nepal: An Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) Bound Testing Model

 

Abstract

This article explores the impact of trade openness, remittance, and BOP on the real GDP in Nepal. This research uses the ARDL Bound Testing model, considering the secondary data collected from the Ministry of Finance, which ranges from 1990 to 2022. This research aims to identify the impact of the external sector on the country's economic growth. The result establishes that BOP has adverse short and long-term effects on the country's economic growth, which indicates the variable's sensitivity. The trade openness rate also has a negative impact; however, remittance positively affects the long run. Hence, the government of Nepal should focus more on rationalising the remittance for the country's economic growth. However, on the other hand, working on trade policy should be a broad discussion to mitigate the negative impact on the country's economic growth (Acharya, 2024).

Keywords: 

Real GPD, Remittance, Import, Export, BOP, ARDL model

Reference:

Acharya, S. (2024). Impact of trade, remittance and BOP on the economic growth of Nepal: an autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) bound testing model. Khwopa Journal, 6(2), 61–73. https://doi.org/10.3126/kjour.v6i2.73149

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If You Bought $1K of Twitter Before Elon Musk Took Over, Here’s How Much You’d Have Today

 

John Csiszar
December 13, 2024 4 min read

hapabapa / Getty Images

Why Is X’s Valuation So Low?

What Is the Future Direction of X?

X, formerly known as Twitter, has hit a rough patch ever since the outspoken CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, bought it for $44 billion in October 2022. 

 

While now a private company, the estimated valuation of X has fallen dramatically since Musk took over the helm. While Musk’s public profile has been boosted even more in recent months due to his close connection with President-elect Donald Trump and his appointment to the newly formed “Department of Government Efficiency,” the problems with X remain. 

 

Here’s a look at how much X’s valuation has fallen since Elon Musk took over, what may have caused the decline, and what the future may hold for the company.

X/Twitter’s Valuation Decline

Elon Musk paid $54.20 per share for Twitter when he completed his acquisition on Oct. 28, 2022. The total purchase price was approximately $44 billion. This transaction made X/Twitter a private company, meaning it cannot be valued on the public market by simply looking at its stock price and outstanding shares.

However, investment firms such as Fidelity are able to make informed estimates as to the value of private companies based on a number of factors, such as cash flow, growth, capital raises, comparable company valuation and so on.

As of October 2023, one year after Musk took the company private, Fidelity valued X at $19 billion, down from its acquisition value of $44 billion. By October 2024, Fidelity’s valuation had plummeted even more, all the way down to $9.4 billion. That represents a decline of almost exactly 50% to 50.5%, to be exact.

How Much Would You Have If You’d Invested $1,000 in Twitter?

If you bought Twitter before Musk took the company private, you’d actually be in good shape. As a private investor, you would have received $54.20 per share for your Twitter investment.

But assuming you were able to hold onto your shares, the $1,000 you originally invested would now be worth $495, having lost more than half their value.

The reasons for X’s tumble in valuation are multi-fold, with no single factor causing the drop. According to Kantar, at least part of the reason is likely fundamental.

The analytics company said that 26% of marketing firms planned to cut down their ad spending on X next year, more than on any other social media platform. Already, the company has lost hundreds of millions in advertising dollars in 2024 alone. X was also regarded as less trustworthy and innovative than YouTube, Instagram or TikTok.

The direction of the company has also concerned many investors, as Musk promptly laid off 50% of Twitter’s staff and re-opened the platform to controversial commentators like Alex Jones. Musk himself has made plenty of controversial comments, including some deemed antisemitic, which has further alienated some advertisers and investors.

Anecdotally, some worry that Musk’s hands are simply too full to devote as much attention to X as a CEO should. As Musk also runs Tesla, the Boring Company, and SpaceX — and is about to take the helm of the Department of Government Efficiency — some investors fear that X is getting the short end of the stick in terms of the billionaire’s attention.

For better or worse, Musk has announced that he intends to completely change the direction of X and make it much more than a simple social media platform.

To take advantage of the boom in fintech, Musk is attempting to turn X into a central hub for users’ financial needs, offering everything from Venmo-like payments to money management and general financial tools. Musk also intends to put his technological know-how into use by adding AI functionality to X.

Whether or not these efforts succeed is anyone’s guess at this point. But those investors still holding shares of X are hoping to recover from the more than 50% loss since Musk took over.

This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: If You Bought $1K of Twitter Before Elon Musk Took Over, Here’s How Much You’d Have Today

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नेपालको संघीय योजना आयोगको नयाँ मोडलः माथिबाट तल, तलबाट माथि

 

देश अब विकास र समृद्धिको यात्रामा उन्मूख छ । नेपालको संविधानअनुसार तीन तहको सरकारसहितको संघीय लोकतान्त्रिक गणतन्त्रात्मक शासन व्यवस्थालाई निर्वाचनमार्फत अनुमोदन गरी संस्थागत गर्ने प्रक्रियामा रहेको छ । तीनै तहका सरकारहरु आफूले सोचेअनुरुपका विकास र समृद्धिको नारालाई सार्थकता प्रदान गर्ने क्रममा लागेको देखिन्छ । सबै निकायमा तहका क्रियाकलाप नियाल्दा सबैमा गतिशीलता देखिन्छ । तर, स्पष्ट गन्तव्य तय गर्न नसकको हो कि ? गन्तव्यलाई पहिचान गरे पनि त्यसमा पुग्ने मार्ग पहिचान गर्न नसकेको हो कि जस्तो भान हुन्छ ।

गन्तव्य र मार्ग पहिचानका लागि अब प्रत्येक संघीय तहले योजनावद्ध विकासलाई अगाडि बढाउनुको विकल्प रहँदैन । यसका लागि तत्कालीन, मध्यकालीन र दीर्घकालीन विकासका योजना निर्माण गरी अगाडि बढ्नुपर्ने हुन्छ । विकास निमार्णलाई संघीय व्यवस्थाअनुरुप अगाडि बढाउन निश्चित संरचनाको व्यवस्था र सो संरचनाका क्रियाकलापहरु स्पष्ट हुन जरुरी छ ।

एकात्मक शासन व्यवस्थामा योजनासम्वन्धी सम्पूर्ण कार्यहरु राष्ट्रिय योजना आयोग (रायोआ) मार्फत सम्पादन गरिँदै आएकोमा अब यो निकायमात्रै सक्षम र पर्याप्त नहुने देखिन्छ । यसर्थ प्रदेश र स्थानीय तहमा पनि योजनाका संरचनाहरु चाहिन्छ । हालसम्म यो विषयमा स्पष्ट खाका पनि बनि नसकेको हुँदा संघीयताको मर्म एवं अन्र्तराष्ट्रिय अनुभवका आधारमा नेपालको योजनाको संस्थागत संरचना ‘तलमाथि-माथि-तल’ योजनाका संरचनाको सम्वन्धमा संरचनाले गर्नुपर्ने कामहरु यहाँ प्रस्तावित गरिएको छ ।

योजनाको विकासक्रमः १४ वटा पञ्चवर्षीय योजना

नेपालको योजनावद्ध इतिहास ६ दशकभन्दा पुरानो रहेको छ । राणा शासनको अन्त्यपछि प्रजातन्त्रलाई संस्थागत गर्न, देशको आर्थिक सामाजिक रुपान्तरणमा भूमिका निर्वाह गर्ने उद्देश्यले वि सं २०१३ सालबाट प्रथम पञ्चवषर्ीय योजनाको सुरुवात भएको पाइन्छ । प्रथम योजनाले नेपालको विकासको आवश्यकतालाई पहिचान गर्‍यो । साथै यसले आफ्नो सीमित स्रोत र साधनका वीच योजना निर्मार्ण गरी कार्यान्वयनको प्रयास गरेको पाइन्छ । योजनाको ऐतिहासिक दस्तावेजका रुपमा प्रथम योजनाको महत्व रहे पनि यसले विकासका आवश्यकतालाई सम्वोधन भने गर्न सकेन ।

दोस्रो योजनादेखि चौथो योजनासम्म आइपुग्दा देशको आर्थिक चरित्र भन्दा पनि राजनीतिक चरित्रले प्रभाव पारेको पाइन्छ । यस समयमा योजनाहरु वस्तुपरक भन्दा पनि सिद्धान्तमुखी भए । जनतासँग भन्दा पनि शासकसँग नजिक रहेको जस्तो महसुस हुने गरी योजनाहरु प्रस्तुत गरियो । परिणामतः योजना कागजमा सीमित रहृयो । विकासलाई आफ्नै गतिमा बजारका स्वतन्त्र अवयवले निर्धारण गर्दै गयो ।

पाँचौं योजनामा आइपुग्दा योजना निमार्णको सम्पूर्ण प्रक्रिया, उद्देश्य निर्धारण गर्ने विषय, कार्यान्वयनका नीतिहरु, रणनीतिहरु निर्धारण गर्ने सन्दर्भमा व्यवहारिक, जनता केन्दि्रत, प्रयोगात्मक एवं क्षेत्रीय सन्तुलनजस्ता विषयमा सम्वोधन गर्न सफल रहेको पाइन्छ । तत् पश्चात आठौं योजनामा आइपुग्दा देशलाई संरचनागत परिवर्तन गर्न सक्ने गरी वृहत दस्तावेजका रुपमा प्रस्तुत भयो ।

आठौं योजना परिवर्तित राजनीतिक सन्दर्भलाई सम्वोधन गर्ने गरी आएको देखिन्छ । जुन विषयमा सारमा योजना सफल रहृयो । तत् पश्चातका योजनाहरु खुला वजार, आर्थिक वृद्धि, रोजगारीलगायतका विषयमा आठौं योजनाकै नजिक रहेको देखियो । दशौं योजना निर्माणको प्रक्रियाको एउटा उत्कृष्ट नमूनाका रुपमा प्रस्तुत भयो । तर, यसको कार्यान्वयन भने अन्य झैँ कमजोर नै रहेको देखिन्छ ।

२०६२/०६३ को जनआन्दोलनले राजसंस्थालाई विदाइ गरेपछि एघारौं योजना संघीय गणतन्त्रात्मक नेपालको आधार योजनाका रुपमा स्थापित भयो । तत् पश्चात संविधानसभामार्फत संविधान जारी गर्नुपर्ने आवश्यकता, छोटो समयमा भरहने सरकार परिवर्तन, विकासको सन्दर्भमा आवश्यक पर्ने स्पष्ट मार्गदर्शनको अभावले ११ औं, १२ औं र १३ औं योजनाहरुलाई अन्तरिम योजनाका रुपमा विकास गरियो ।

चौधौं योजनामा आइपुग्दा संविधान जारी भई राजनीतिक संक्रमणको अन्त्य भएको छ । राजनीतिक परिवर्तन स्थापित भएको छ । नागरिक अधिकारसँगै सामाजिक न्यायसहितको आर्थिक विकास र समृद्ध समाज निमार्ण कार्य राज्यको प्रमुख कार्यसूचीमा परेको छ । यसै पृष्ठभूमिमा योजनाको संरचनागत विषयमा स्पष्ट भई अगाडि बढ्नुपर्ने देखिन्छ ।

अबको संरचनाः रायोआ, प्रयोआ र स्थानीय समिति

संघमा राष्ट्रिय योजना आयोग, प्रदेशमा योजना आयोग (प्रयोआ) र स्थानीय तहमा योजना समितिको आवश्यकता देखिन्छ । संघमा रायोआ रहने अब सुनिश्चित छ भने प्रयोआ गठन कतिपय प्रदेशले गरिसकेका र कतिपय प्रदेशहरु सो प्रक्रियामा रहेको देखिन्छ । तर, स्थानीय तहका सन्दर्भमा भने अधिकांस गा.पा/न.पा हरु अलमलमा रहेको पाइन्छ ।

रायोआमा ८ वटा डेस्क स्थापना हुन जरुरी छ । ७ वटा डेस्कले ७ प्रदेशलाई र आठौं डेस्कले स्थानीय योजना सम्वन्धी विषयलाई नियाल्ने गरी कार्याविधि तय गर्नुपर्ने देखिन्छ । अबको विकास र समृद्धिको यात्राका लागि योजनालाई रणनीतिक रुपमा उपयोग गरी अगाडि बढ्नुको विकल्प छैन । यसका लागि योजनासँग सम्वन्धित संरचनाहरुको जिम्मेवारी स्पष्ट पार्नुपर्ने देखिन्छ ।

राष्ट्रिय योजना आयोगको जिम्मेवारी कस्तो हुनुपर्छ ?

प्रथम, समाजको वर्तमान आवश्यकतालाई पहिचान गर्ने, आर्थिक सामाजिक पर्यावरणीय विषयमा आउने परिवर्तन र सो परिवर्तनले देशको समग्रतामा आउने परिवर्तनको आँकलन गर्ने जिम्मेवारी रायोआले निभाउनुपर्ने हुन्छ । तत् तत् विषयमा विभिन्न क्षेत्रका विज्ञलाई प्रत्येक दिन, हप्ता, महिना, वर्ष अनि वर्षमा विविध आयामलाई अध्ययन गर्दै बिताउने अनुसन्धानकक्षको व्यवस्था गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ । यसैका आधारमा देशको कार्यकारिणीलाई आर्थिक विषयमा अनुसन्धानमा आधारित परामर्श दिने संस्थाको रुपमा विकास गर्नुपर्ने छ ।

दोस्रो, राष्ट्रिय योजना आयोगले अर्न्तराष्ट्रिय प्रतिवद्धता, आन्तरिक आवश्यकता संवोधन गर्नेगरी वृहत आर्थिक विकासको खाका तयार गर्नुपर्ने छ । जसका आधारमा प्रदेशले र स्थानीय निकायले आफूलाई राष्ट्रिय विकासको प्रवाहमा आफूलाई सहभागी हुने अवस्था सिर्जना हुन्छ । जुन योजना कार्यान्वयनका लागि अपरिहार्य चरित्र हो ।

तेस्रो, रायोआले एउटा प्रोजेक्ट बैंक राख्न जरुरी छ । जहाँ प्रोजेक्ट रिडनेससहितका योजनाहरु समावेश गरिनेछ । वजेटमा योजना संलग्न गर्दा वैदेशिक साहायता लिदा उक्त प्रोजेक्ट बैंक मा रहेका योजना, जुन तुरुन्त कार्यान्वयन गर्न सकिने अवस्थामा रहन्छन् । छनौट गरी अगाडि बढ्दा हाल योजना पहिचानदेखि कार्यान्वयनको चरणसम्म पुग्दा लाग्ने समय र स्रोतको बचत हुनेछ ।

चौथो, योजनाका परिवर्तित सन्दर्भमा प्रदेश र स्थानीय तहसँग नियमित संवाद गरिरहनु पर्नेछ । जसले सोपानमा आधारित प्रणालीलाई कार्यमुखी बनाउन मद्दत गर्दछ । साथै योजनाको अनुगमनका लागि पनि रायोआ तयार रहनुपर्ने देखिन्छ ।

प्रदेश योजना आयोगको जिम्मेवारी कस्तो ?

प्रथम, रायोआले निर्धारण गरेको राष्ट्रिय योजना र प्राथमिकतालाई सफल कार्यान्वयनका लागि ‘लिंकेज म्याट्रिक्स’ का आधारमा प्रादेशिक योजनामार्फत सम्वोधन गर्ने र मातहतका स्थानीय निकायका पहिचानदेखि कार्यान्वयन, अनुगमन मूल्याङ्कनसम्मको चक्रमा सहयोगी बन्ने भूमिका हुनुपर्छ ।

दोस्रो, प्रदेशले आफ्नै प्रादेशिक प्रथमिकता तय गर्नुपर्नेछ । यसका लागि आवश्यक पर्ने स्रोत र साधनको व्यवस्थापनमा प्रदेश संवेदनशील भएर अगाडि बढ्नुपर्ने हुन्छ । योजना तय गर्दा आवश्यक पर्ने प्रदेश तथ्याङ्क व्यवस्थापन पनि प्रयोआले गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ ।

तेस्रो, प्रदेशले आफ्ना लागि एउटा प्रदेश प्रोजेक्ट बैंक स्थापना गर्न जरुरी हुन्छ । यस प्रोजेक्ट बैंक मा रहने योजनाको विस्तृत परियोजना प्रस्तावका लागि तयार योजना हुन जरुरी छ । यस बैंकमा प्रदेशले सञ्चालन गर्ने सक्ने योजनाहरु रहनेछन् ।

त्यसैगरी स्थानीय तहले सञ्चालन गर्न नसकेका तर प्रदेशको प्रथमिकतामा राख्दा/राखिँदा दुई तहको बीचमा विकासको सन्दर्भमा समन्वय स्थापित हुने देखिन्छ ।

स्थानीय योजना इकाइ कस्तो हुने ?

योजनावद्ध रुपमा अगाडि बढेको खण्डमा स्थानीय तहले सारभूत रुपमा समग्र देशको आर्थिक विकासमा परिवर्तन ल्याउन सक्छ । यसका लागि प्रत्येक गा.पा/न.पा/उप म.नपा ले मेयर वा चेयरको अध्यक्षतामा रहने एउटा ‘योजना समिति’ गठन गर्दा उपयुक्त हुने देखिन्छ ।

उक्त समिति नौ/एघार वा पन्ध्र सदस्यीय रहने गरी बहुमत सदस्यहरु आर्थिक-सामाजिक-पर्यावरणीय विज्ञहरुलाई निश्चित समयका लागि समेटी स्थानीय योजना निर्माण गरिनु पर्नेछ ।

स्थानीय योजना समितिले योजनाका लागि क्रियाकलाप गरिरहँदा गर्नुपर्ने प्रमुख कामहरु निम्नअनुसार हुनुपर्छः

प्रथम, उक्त स्थानीय निकायमा विभिन्न समूह र समाजमा बसोबास गर्ने मानिसका तत्कालीन समस्या के हुन् ? तिनको पहिचान गर्ने ।

दोस्रो, उक्त समूहको आर्थिक समाजिक अपेक्षाको परिधि कत्रो रहेको छ ? पहिचान गर्ने ।

तेस्रो, ती आवश्यकताहरु सम्वोधन गर्न कुन वस्तु तथा सेवामार्फत कुन स्थानमा क-कसको प्रयोगबाट सम्वोधन गर्ने ? सोको पहिचान गर्ने ।

चौथो, समाजमा रहेका हरेक वर्ग, जाति, संस्कृति, पहुँचका आधारमा रहेका विविधतालाई खुला योजनाहरु र केही महत्वाकांक्षी योजनाहरु सम्वोधनका विकल्पवारे स्थानीयहरुसँग छलफल गर्ने ।

यसो हुँदा योजना कार्यान्वयन प्रभावकारी रहनेछ ।

योजना इकाइहरुको सञ्चार/सम्वादको संरचना

नेपालको नयाँ राजनीति परिस्थितिमा तीन तहको योजना आयोगको संरचनाले कसरी काम गर्छ भन्नेबारे चर्चा गर्दा ‘तल माथि- माथि तल’को सिद्धान्त अवलम्बन गर्नु उपयुक्त देखिन्छ । यो सिद्धान्तलाई यसरी व्याख्या गर्न सकिन्छः

तलबाट माथि (स्थानीय योजना समिति- प्रयोआ – रायोआ) स्थानीय निकायमा रहेको योजना समितिमार्फत प्राप्त योजना आफ्नो स्रोत साधनले प्राप्त भए तत्कालै, नभए प्राथमिकता तय गरी क्रमशः सम्वोधन गर्नेछ । तर, आफ्नो स्रोतले समन्वय नहुने भएमा जिल्ला समन्वय समितिमार्फत प्रदेश योजना आयोगमा पठाउनेछ ।

प्रदेश योजना आयोगमा पर्ने वा पठाउने योजनाको प्रारम्भिक सम्भाव्यता अध्ययन भएको हुनुपर्नेछ ।

स्थानीय तहबाट प्राप्त योजनालाई स्थानीय तहहरुका वीचमा समन्वय गरी दुई वा सोभन्दा बढी निकायलाई समेटी कार्यान्वयन गर्न सकिने योजनालाई प्रदेशको प्रोजेक्ट बैंकमा प्राथमिकीकरण गरी समेट्नेछ । स्थानीय तहबाट प्राप्त योजना प्रदेशले आफ्नो योजनामा समावेश गर्न नसक्ने भएमा सो योजनालाई अगाडि बढाउन नसक्नुको वस्तुपरक कारण सहित जि.स.स मार्फत स्थानिय निकायमा नै फिर्ता पठाइदिनेछ ।

स्थानीय तह प्रदेशसँगको सम्वादमा असन्तुष्ट भएमा जिससमार्फत रायोआको स्थानीय तहको योजना हेर्ने डेस्कमा पठाइदिनेछ । स्थानीय तहबाट प्राप्त योजनाको अध्ययन गरी रायोआले प्राथमिकीकरणका आधारमा आफ्नो प्रोजेक्ट बैंकमा समावेश गर्नुपर्छ । रायोआलाई प्राप्त योजना पुनः स्थानीय तहमा कुनै पनि कारणले फर्काउन निशेध हुनुपर्छ ।

प्रदेश योजना आयोगः प्रदेश योजना आयोगले आफ्नो योजनाको सम्पूर्ण विवरण प्रदेशको योजना समन्वय महाशाखामार्फत रायोआलाई उक्त प्रदेश हेर्ने डेस्कमा पठाउनुपर्नेछ । प्रदेशको प्राथमिकता र राष्ट्रिय प्राथमिकता निर्धारण गर्ने सन्दर्भमा तत् प्रदेशको डेस्क र योजना समन्वय महाशाखाको वीचमा नियमित सम्वाद हुन जरुरी छ ।

प्रदेशले आफूमार्फत सम्वोधन हुन नसक्ने कार्यक्रमहरु प्रदेश योजना समन्वय महाशाखामार्फत रायोआमा पठाई सहयोगको अपेक्षा गर्नेछ ।

रायोआले प्रदेशबाट प्राप्त योजनालाई प्रजेक्ट रिडनेस सहित आफ्नो प्रोजेक्ट बैंक मा समावेश गराउनुपर्नेछ । सो प्रोजेक्टको प्राथमिकीकरण रायोआले गर्नेछ ।

प्रदेशबाट प्राप्त योजनालाई बहुप्रादेशिक योजना बनाउन सकिने/नसकिने वा उक्त योजना राष्ट्रिय महत्वका योजना हुन् भन्ने विषयमा रायोआले निक्र्योल गर्नेछ ।

माथिबाट तलः (रायोआ – प्रयोआ- स्थानीय योजना समिति)

यो सिस्टम अनुसार रायोआले ‘वृहत आर्थिक विकासको खाका’ निर्माण गरी आफ्नो प्रदेश हेर्ने डेस्कमार्फत प्रदेशको योजनामा रेखीय समीकरण निर्माण गर्नुपर्नेछ ।

त्यसैगरी रायोआले स्थानीय तहमा योजनालाई संप्रेषण गर्नुपर्ने भएमा स्थानीय तह हेर्ने डेस्कमार्फत जिसस हुँदै संवाद गर्नेछ ।
कतिपय योजनाका विषयहरु रायोआले प्रयोआमार्फत स्थानीय तहमा पुर्‍याउनेछ भने कतिपय विषयहरुमा सिधा संवाद गर्न चाहेमा जिससको सहयोगमा गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ ।

अन्त्यमा, योजनामा संरचना र ती संरचनाले जिम्मेवारी पाउँदैमा देशमा विकासको ढोका खुल्ने अवश्य होइन । नेतृत्वको इच्छाशक्ति, प्रशासनिक इमानदारिता, स्थानीय जनताको संलग्नता र स्रोतको उपलब्धताले मात्रै हामी हाम्रो गन्तव्यमा पुग्न सक्छौं । यसका लागि हाम्रो संघीय संरचनामा प्रदेश र स्थानीय तहका वीचमा हुने तेस्रो संवादले पनि महत्वपूर्ण भूमिका निर्वाह गर्दछ । यस विषयमा पनि नेतृत्व योजनाविद् चनाखो हुन आवश्यक छ ।

(लेखक आचार्य विकास र अर्थतन्त्रको क्षेत्रका अनुसन्धानकर्ता हुन्)

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Blockchain and Financial Industry

Blockchain

According to IBM, “Blockchain is a shared, immutable ledger that facilitates recording transactions and tracking assets in a business network. An asset either be tangible (a house, car, cash, and) or intangible (intellectual property, patents, copyrights, and branding)”. 

In other words, blockchain is a method of storing assets required in a business environment for future use in which there is no chance to lose and change the information stored in it. 

In the block of the chain, every block contains information in which two layers of ownership are established- one is who owns the current data, and another is the previous owner. 

Blockchain offers virtual security, transparency, trust, privacy, and high performance at a significantly low cost. Especially in the financial sector, it was estimated that at the end of 2030, the development of blockchain will save up to $27 billion in cross-border transactions.

Blockchain in the Financial Industry

Blockchain technology has a feature that applies in almost all industries, from the primary sector to the supply chain in manufacturing industries to the tertiary sector.

Blockchain can change bank and financial services to a great extent. For the client prospect, it helps to make the prompt transfer of money from one account to another worldwide in a minimal period. The cost associated with this service is negligible and eliminates the chance of hacking. Moreover, it offers services without middlemen.

Due to the decentralization of the banking sector in recent years, the demand for highly encrypted data generation, protection, and storage became possible through blockchain technology. This technology made cross-border transactions quick and secure.

Blockchain deals with peer-to-peer lending, insurance, real-time payment, trade finance, compliance, and mainstream banking solution. This has improved the settlement cost with a secured and proficient payment method.

This technology generated the crypto-currency, which helps to connect the financial market with digital wallets. Bitcoin is an example that has been considered globally as a means of transferring value from one client to another.

Record keeping system in blockchain establishes a robust mechanism for data protection and protects companies from facing false claims. This could be the front hand to speed up the payment release process to the service providers.

Real estate is also using this technology to protect information about clients. Through this technology, their ownership transfer records and financial profile verification reduces the paperwork and save cost for doing these deeds.

Blockchain technology has created a large scope of crypto-currency. A new financial process like Initial Coin Offering (ICO) is seen as a lucrative tool to connect many investors around the globe. Generate funding for investment projects from unknown investors with their reciprocal return agreement that can be done with the help of blockchain.

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Forecasting with ARIMA: R Code

Step-1: ###R Packages Installed

library(fpp2)

library(readxl)

library(SPlit)

library(fpp2)

 

###Declare time-series data

###In this study I have file naming as HPI_AUS. All the date excel format.

HPI_AUS <-ts(AUSHPI[,2], start=c(2002,3), frequency=4)

 

Step-3: ###While forecasting, first that should be done within the sample, and if it is found valid, then only we forrecast out of sample.

###Split the given data into the training and test sets

split_HPI_AUS <- ts_split(ts.obj = HPI_AUS, sample.out= 8)

training <- split_AUSHPI$train

testing <- split_AUSHPI$test

length(training)

length(testing)

 Step-4:###Select the appropriate forecasting tool. Here I have used ARIMA (easy and quick model)

###ARIMA In-sample testing

arima_diag(training)

 

 

###Model forecasting In-sample

arima1 <- auto.arima(training, seasonal= TRUE)

autoplot(arima1)

check_res(arima1)

 

###Forecasting In-sample

fcast1<- forecast(arima1, h=8)

test_forecast(actual=HPI_AUS, forecast.obj = fcast1, test = testing)

accuracy(fcast1, testing)

 

###Auto ARIMA model Out of Sample

arima_diag(HPI_AUS)

fit_arima <- auto.arima(HPI_AUS, seasonal = TRUE )

autoplot(fit_arima)

check_res(fit_arima)

 

###Forecasting Out of Sample

fcast1 <- forecast(HPI_AUS, model = fit_arima, h=8)

plot_forecast(fcast1)

summary(fcast1)

 

###Do we have any option to validate the Forecasting Result?

Box.test(resid(fcast1), lag=1, type = "Ljung-Box")

Box.test(resid(fcast1), lag=5, type = "Ljung-Box")

Box.test(resid(fcast1), lag=10, type = "Ljung-Box")

Box.test(resid(fcast1), lag=15, type = "Ljung-Box")

Box.test(resid(fcast1), lag=20, type = "Ljung-Box")

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